Bond Outlook
[by bridport & cie, February 20th 2002]
The passage of Wal-Mart to become the largest company in the world
by sales is a sign of the times; US consumers keep spending and increasing
their debt, despite the recession, but much prefer discounters over
conventional retailers. The USA is attempting to sail through a recession
by borrowing at every level: |
|
- Consumers, whose
ratio of consumer credit to disposable income has oscillated since 1970
between 13% and 17%, is now about to break through the 19% level
- Corporations, whose
ratio of debt to profits, historically between 3 and 4 times, has risen
to 6
- Government:
increased military spending and tax cuts have turned the surplus into
deficit (its size is still unclear, but in the order of 1% of GDP, quite
modest so far)
- External current
account: now at 4.8% of GDP and heading next year to 6% (massive
adjustments are reckoned to occur at about 5%).
|
|
In other words, the USA is living above its means and on debt, and
the rest of the world is living on the USA. Nothing has been done to
adjust the great imbalances of the American economy, an approach we
likened over a year ago to sending a flu' victim on his way without any
attempt at cure or rest. Not a healthy approach! |
|
The sense of the unreal, of which "Enronitis" is a symptom rather
than the prime cause, is now affecting financial markets. Confidence in a
great rebound in equities this year is still present, but much diminished
since the beginning of the year. Led by UK pension funds, a major shift
from equities to bonds is under way (Boots the Chemist was the pioneer
last year). In a sense, this is but a return to normal for pension
funding; it was the 1990s with their overvalued stock values that were the
exception. It all boils down to an expression we used for the conclusion
we spelt out last week, that this is a time to give preference to
capital protection, over returns. |
|
As if the US economic situation were not enough to justify this
conclusion, there are two other massive threats hanging over the world
economy (leaving aside issues of terrorism, Axis of Evil and the
Mideast): |
|
- The first is Japan,
which differs from the USA in knowing that its economy is in trouble,
but shares with the USA its propensity to do nothing to resolve
outstanding issues. Deflation remains and unemployment keeps moving up
(now 5.5%). The ratio of public debt to GDP, at 130% last year, is
rising to 140% in 2002. The "mark to market" event of end March will
eject more skeletons from the cupboards. The slow motion collapse of
Japan is ripening for a speed up
- The second is
pension funding in almost all the developed world. Except for
Switzerland, the UK and the Netherlands, government "pay as you go"
schemes are totally under-funded and will mean the working population
supporting ever more retirees. Governments will be politically unable to
impose the tax increases necessary to close the gap, so they will
borrow. All will go the way of Japan. Another case of denial by
politicians.
|
|
These three (US rebalancing, Japanese reform, pension refinancing)
are the big examples of political leadership failing to act now, putting
off the inevitable to a very evil day. Currently there is a fourth
example, reform in the euro zone to a more pro-business environment, but,
important though this is, it pales in significance compared to the "big
three". |
|
The dollar's immediate strength is mainly tied to Japan. In this
first quarter of 2002, the Japanese are repatriating funds to deal with
the March 31 deadline. Thereafter two opposing routes are open: they may
recall their overseas assets to deal with their crisis at home, or they
may so lose faith in their own economy and switch all those domestic
savings to foreign assets. The former seems the more likely to
us. |
|
The brightest spot in the world economy at present seems to be Asia
ex-Japan, where forecasts of economic growth are high if Japan does not
collapse and still positive if it does. Bond spreads in these countries
are nevertheless likely to widen as Japan worsens, so it is a little soon
to see them as a buying opportunity. |
|
Argentina has forced conversion of provincial bonds from dollars to
pesos at 1.40. Our conclusion is that the bottom on foreign debt has not
yet been reached. |
|
Recommended average maturity for bonds in each
currency We stay our hand on bar-belling, which we see as the next
step. Stay short, including FRNs. |
Currency: |
USD |
GBP |
EUR |
CHF |
As of
05.12.01 |
2006 |
2006 |
2006 |
2006 |
As of
30.01.02 |
2005 |
2005 |
2005 |
2005 |
|
|
In the US, the accounting trauma is still hurting people's
confidence in the potential recovery of the US economy. The stock market
is waiting for the end of March to see the impact of the reduction of the
inventories and equity investors are hoping for a rebound at that time. In
the very short term, the mood is still bearish and affecting the whole
financial industry. |
|
Japan remains under water and we do not see what can take it out in
the short term. We shall have to wait for Japanese yearend on March 31st
for a fresh evaluation of the Japanese economy. We expect the yen to
weaken further after that date. In Europe, the stock markets are seeing no
rebound and the appetite for stocks, expected from fresh money going into
pension funds, remains very weak. |
|
EUR/USD: A broad trading band of 0.8500
to 0.9030 is still valid. Key support is at 0.8480 and key resistance at
0.9030, with pivotal point at 0.8750. We still favour fresh selling of the
euro in the 0.8850 to 08950 area. |
|
USD/CHF: So long as the exchange
rate stays above 1.6750/80, the dollar remains in a range with a key
resistance level of 1.7250. Only a weekly close below 1.6750 would put the
bullish outlook into doubt and point to a deeper correction, down to
1.6550 first. |
|
USD/JPY: The yen remains in its range
of 131.50 to 135.30 for the time being. We still favour a continual
weakening of the yen, with our first target of 136.90, followed by
140. |
|
EUR/JPY: We keep our wait and see
stance. We would reopen 50% of a long EUR/JPY position below 115.00.
Consolidation in a 114 to 118 trading range is expected. |
|
USD/CAD: We keep our short position
USD/CAD at 1.5955 with a S/L at 1.6300. Price objective is still around
1.5650. |
|
AUD/USD: The Aussie remains under
pressure. A move below the psychological barrier of 0.5000 would be
catastrophic and erase the Aussie potential to appreciate in the short
term. A clear breakout of 0.5350 would be needed to sustain a rally
towards 0.5500. |
|
GBP/CHF: Extremely volatile at the
moment with no clear trend. It remains in its broad range of 2.3850 to
2.4450. This range will stay in place unless the USD starts to trend
lower. |
|
|
USD/CHF |
EUR/USD |
EUR/CHF |
USD/JPY |
EUR/JPY |
Resistance/Breakout |
1.7250 |
0.9030 |
1.4880 |
135.30 |
118.00 |
Current spot
level |
1.6890 |
0.8750 |
1.4785 |
133.35 |
116.70 |
Support/Breakout |
1.6750 |
0.8480 |
1.4680 |
131.50 |
115.00 |
|
AUD/USD |
NZD/USD |
USD/CAD |
GBP/USD |
XAU/USD |
Resistance/Breakout |
0.5350 |
0.4310 |
1.6030 |
1.4410 |
307.50 |
Current spot
level |
0.5170 |
0.4210 |
1.5890 |
1.4300 |
293.50 |
Support/Breakout |
0.5000 |
0.4050 |
1.5780 |
1.4180 |
290.00 |
|
|